Inflation data released the Fed's interest rate cut in December, but it lit up a yellow light for next year. The latest inflation data may make the Fed more cautious about the pace of interest rate cut, but not now. The latest report shows that inflation in the United States in November was in line with expectations, so investors still generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. However, stubborn price pressure also confirms the concern that the progress towards the Fed's 2% target may stagnate. This concern may prompt officials to be more restrained in predicting the number of interest rate cuts in 2025, while waiting for more evidence that inflation will steadily reach the target. Fed policymakers will release new forecasts and interest rate outlook at the end of the policy meeting in Washington on December 17-18. "I think they can safely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The market is ready for this, "said Loretta Mester, former president of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. "However, they must reconsider next year, because now it seems that the progress of inflation has really stagnated."Foreign media: Romania and Bulgaria have officially joined the Schengen area since 2025. According to Agence France-Presse, on the 12th local time, the European Commission approved that Bulgaria and Romania will officially become members of the Schengen area from January 1st, 2025. According to reports, Hungarian Interior Minister Pinter Shan Duoer said, "Welcome Bulgaria and Romania to join the Schengen area ... This is a historic moment." According to reports, Romania and Bulgaria became EU members in 2007. In March 2024, the two countries partially joined the Schengen area, and only the air and maritime border controls were cancelled. In November, the EU completed the final step of approving the two countries to join the Schengen area. (Zhongxin. com)Fitch Ratings: US state and local governments (economies) are expected to return to normal in 2025. Steady reserves, reduced liabilities, and prudent budget management have prepared American state and local governments for 2025.
The rate of return of the money fund has reached a record low. Since December, the rate of return of the money fund has continued to decline. The annualized rate of return of Tianhong Yubao Money Fund, the largest, fell below 1.27% on the 7th, hitting a record low. According to industry insiders, the recently released "Self-discipline Initiative on Optimizing the Self-discipline Management of Non-bank Interbank Deposit Interest Rate" has a great impact on the Monetary Fund, and the superimposed interest rate is at a low level, and the yield of the Monetary Fund may continue to decline. As the income decreases, funds will look for new directions for allocation. (SSE)According to opinion polls, Chile's inflation rate is expected to be 3.5% in the next 12 months.Dollar deposits and wealth management are popular again. Experts suggest paying attention to exchange risk. Although it is in the cycle of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, dollar deposit products are still attractive to investors. Since December, a number of bank wealth management subsidiaries have intensively put on shelves US dollar wealth management products. Judging from the rate of return, the performance benchmark of some US dollar fixed-income wealth management products currently launched is close to 5%, but the performance benchmark of RMB wealth management products with the same risk level is mostly around 2%. According to the statistics of Puyi standard data, as of December 9, there were 1,312 surviving products in US dollar financing, and the surviving scale of US dollar financing reached 281.927 billion yuan, which has doubled from the surviving scale of 140.351 billion yuan at the end of December last year. In addition, although banks have previously lowered the interest rate of dollar deposit products, from the current point of view, the interest rate of some banks' dollar deposits remains above 4%, attracting many customers to buy. In addition, the annual interest rates of US dollar deposit products issued by banks such as Ningbo Bank Co., Ltd. and hengfeng bank Co., Ltd. are also between 3% and 4%. According to industry insiders, under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the main reason for the high heat of dollar wealth management and dollar deposits is the exchange rate expectation of a strong dollar. If the market expects the US dollar to appreciate or remain stable, holding US dollar assets (such as US dollar wealth management and US dollar deposits) can benefit from the potential exchange rate appreciation even if interest rates fall. In addition, in order to diversify risks, some investors choose to allocate part of their funds to US dollar assets to realize diversification of asset allocation. (Securities Daily)
The settlement price of international crude oil rose by over 2%. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil delivered in January 2025 in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.70 US dollars to close at 70.29 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.48%; London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2025 rose by $1.33 to close at $73.52 per barrel, an increase of 1.84%.Hungarian Prime Minister: Zelensky explicitly rejected the ceasefire on December 25th. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said on the 11th local time that Ukrainian President Zelensky explicitly rejected the proposal of a ceasefire on December 25th. "Hungary's rotating presidency of the European Union came to an end, and we made the latest efforts for peace, proposing a ceasefire on December 25th and conducting a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war. Zelensky explicitly rejected and ruled out this possibility ". Hungarian Foreign Minister Jardot said on the same day that Orban mentioned the proposal of ceasefire and exchange of prisoners of war when talking with Putin, but Kiev rejected this proposal. It is said that the Hungarian government contacted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga and Ukrainian President's Office Director Ermak.Ukraine plans to legalize cryptocurrency in early 2025. It is reported that cryptocurrency will be legalized in Ukraine by the first quarter of 2025, but it is unlikely to provide tax relief. Danylo Hetmantsev, Chairman of the Finance, Taxation and Customs Policy Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament, said: "When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the working group of the Parliament is completing the first reading of a draft law. I believe that the text worked out in cooperation with the National Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be ready after the New Year. Our goal is to pass this law and legalize cryptocurrency in the first quarter of 2025. " Hetmantsev said that cryptocurrency will not be tax-free, and the form of tax will follow the example of securities and tax profits when assets are converted into currency. "After consulting with European experts and the IMF, we are very cautious about using cryptocurrency for tax exemption, because it may aggravate tax evasion in traditional markets," he said.
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14